NorCal Cycling News – Cycling and Racing in Northern California

Madera predictions … p1/2 women, p1/2 men, and some old guys

First off ~ there’s so many women cat 3′s, 4s, and 35+’ers that I can’t begin to make any predictions.  But I can say ~ hellyeah!  The racing in these categories is going to RAWK.  I’m super psyched to see how the 35+ field races this weekend.  Too bad you cats have to all double fields on the crit course.  You have my condolences in advance.  Hope the fields don’t come anywhere near each other and no one is negatively impacted by the crowding.

But again … this year’s 35+ field at Madera marks the fruition and turning point of a LOT of years investment in women’s racing.  Well done programs and individuals who have raged against the machine.
This race will be pure hotness.
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Women p1/2:

CRIT – the obvious candidate for the field sprint is Beth Newell, as she’s hungry for a fast gallop after last weekend’s MERCO pack fill.  But Mary-Ellen Ash is ALWAYS strong in this field sprint and I think she’s been doing some secret training on her turbojets.  But, though I think Metromint will do a good job of keeping the field together for Molly Van Houweling’s TT that afternoon … I think this year might see a break snap off in the crit.

Olivia Dillon and Jane Despas are too fit and too smart – and there will be a lot of women on the hunt for time bonuses and a bit of buffer for that afternoon time trial.  It’ll be fascinating to see if a move goes away.  Could be a tense, tactical, and fast race.

PREDICTION – Beth Newel, Fremont Bank Tellers
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TIME TRIAL – it’s really, really hard to not pick Molly Shaffer Van Houweling as the favorite for the TT at Madera.  So I won’t.  MVH is in huge form on the TT bike and I see her crushing the wind out there on Saturday.  More interesting will be the gaps to other contenders … again, I see O’Dillon as a big player this weekend, and I think she’ll pop off a big TT.  She’ll have Hanan Alves-Hyde to do a bit of work for her in the crit – but HAH hasn’t been racing much yet this year, so is an unknown quantity regarding resilience and endurance.

3rd for the TT is a toss-up … Despas and Newell were very close last weekend against the clock and I think it’ll be the same on Saturday.  But another rider who could very well sneak high up on the GC with the TT will be Jerika Hutchinson.  I actually think she might be a serious player in the crit, as well.  But don’t tell anyone.?

PREDICTION: MVH, MetroMinto
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ROAD RACE – this is a long race that may stir up some drama on Sunday.  Last year, Metromint saw MVH’s gap from the TT evaporate under accumulated time bonuses from die-hard Despas.  This year, it will be very interesting to see how they play it.  The Minties have the largest team, but it’s a big and strong field in the race and I see multiple breakaway attempts on order from the group.

Jane Wolcott, Rebecca Werner, and Haley Juno-Galdes for Webcor may shake up the action … and, I’d be very surprised if Los Gatos didn’t pop the ever-young Laurie Fenech off the front for a few miles.  If Metromint is put under pressure by the field, I’m not even sure MVH has enough in the tank to overcome the inevitable late attacks.

PREDICTION: Jane Despas, Yahoo’ess
GC PREDICTION: MVH, MasterMinty

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Men p1/2

UPHILL TT – oh boy, this is a stage that a number of guys will be hammer down and impressing the sierra shrubbrush.  The likely favorite is Max Jenkins of UnitedHealthKooks.  But, I have to wonder if one of the thousand CalGiant 20 year olds might not push him to the limit.  Huffman showed so much power last weekend … and in a straight slugfest uphill, he’ll be a hard man to knock down.  But I also will be interested to see how Fremont Bank’s Rob Scheffler goes.  I’m not sure about his pure sustainable climbing power … but, he’s one tough mother and may just surprise.

One guy who has the potential to be very high in the placings is local hotness, Vince Owens of Sierra Pacific.  Him and Brian Bosch know that TT course as well as anyone and will measure their efforts perfectly.  But, I’m going to go with my gut and say that the big surprise will come from one of the Echelon Team.  Jon Teeter and Alex Brookhouse can put out the watts … so watch out.

PREDICTION: Max Jenkins, UnitedHealthCraps
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MORNING TT: This is a pure TT’ers course … and I think that equipment and time spent on the TT bike will be the name of the game Saturday morning.  The top end of the stage will be stacked, with close time gaps and much GC contemplation.  But with no clear and above TT dominator … it’s going to be a toss up as to who has the best day.  Riders under the radar and worth watching are the White Brothers of Davis Bike Club.  Greg and Russ White can go against the clock, and they’re fresh for Madera.

Another rider that is going to surprise in the TT will be SJBC’s Johannes Steffens.  Nobody knows this guy outside of the SJBC winter series … but, he can turn a sweet time trial – so look for him to be a top 10.

PREDICTION: Evan Huffman, GiantBerryBoy
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CRIT – if the winds pick up, this crit can just savage a pack.  It’s happened in the past, and I see the uber-fitness of the CalGiant riders wrecking havoc amongst the p1/2 field.  But another couple riders that merit some serious consideration are Marc Pro-Strava’s Justin Rossi and Webcor’s John Wilk.  The field will be fast and the action hot, but Wilk has been saving his matches all year and I see him putting in a huge performance at this year’s Madera crit.  And Rossi is just real, real fit right now.  But this stage is incredibly difficult to predict … so, I’m going with my gut.

PREDICTION: Logan Loader, Team “needs to be signed”
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ROAD RACE: Team dynamics, 3rd day fitness … and the chance of wind ~ it’s game on for this final stage.

Since I have a sneaky suspicion that the GC may be in the hands of CalGiant … I think they may well keep both the crit and RR packs together, for the most part. They’ve got some big horsepower in the field with Keith Miller and Ozzie Olmos … both have seen many a kilometer driving the front end of the pack.  So, it will be intriguing to see how they play it … Metromint defensive, or HTC offensive to secure a team GC win.  I’ll be watching with much interest.

But the RR is more than one of attrition, it’s one of serious tactics and I see the slightly uphill finish as being a titanic battle between the sprinters Wilk and Loader.  There will be powermeters cringing.

PREDICTION: Logan Loader

GC PREDICTION: Evan Huffman, CalBerry
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OldFarts, aged 35+

CRIT – this crit can often be quite negative and silly.  But, with so many big teams and ridiculously fit playahs in the race this year – I have a feeling this thing is going to be AWESOME.   I can tell you right now, the two riders who will be the most underestimated in the crit and road race will be Rio Strada’s Matt Connelly and Ovest’s Mike Hardy.  These guys are hugely fit and rabidly hungry to be off the front.  The Folsom guys will be quite strong and I see Dan Bryant doing his usual off-the-front-itis in a crit.  But, a lot of superstrong TT guys will try and save matches for the afternoon time trial … so it’s going to be fascinating to watch the team dynamics going into overdrive.

I just don’t know if there’s going to be enough horsepower in the pack to stop a break that is well represented with the large teams.  Arts Cyclery has a very strong squad, led by Matt Carinio … a rider who pedals pure glass.  But they’ve also got superhardman Craig Nunes who is genetically allergic to pack riding ~ so will be uber-aggressive in the crit.  And I’m getting more and more impressed with the Thirsty Bear squad and see them being heavily involved in the action.  This stage could be one that defines the GC … so, it will be exhilarating to be apart of it. Can’t wait.

PREDICTION: Dean Laberge, Specialized Dad
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TIME TRIAL – The 35s field has the shortest gap between Crit and TT … and that can heavily influence tactics in the Crit.  Some of the fastest TT times of the weekend will come out of this field, and riders to watch in the 35s will be Bryant, the Specialized duo of Chris Lyman and Billy Innes, Yahoo’s Kevin Klein, and Taleo’s Jason Grefrath. Each have well established TT palmares.  But a rider many of the 35s field won’t know about is Norcal Bike Sport Red Peloton’s Jon Lee.  I see this guy putting in a super TT and being a factor all weekend long.

It really is a toss-up as to who is going to have the best legs after what could be a grueling criterium.  But I think that pure TT class will show itself and you’ll see a wickedly fast effort put in for the stage win.

PREDICTION: Chris Lyman, Specialized Geezers
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ROAD RACE – woohoo, this will be a doozy!  With the field this stacked and the depth of tactical ability oozing out of it … this road race is going to be one of the best all year.  I simply canNOT wait for this stage.  I foresee 6-thousand attacks going off all day long on the roads of Madera and a battle of epic proportions.

Team tactics, disciplined patience, and savage hunger will define who comes out on top of this road race.  And it’s very, very likely that the stage results will significantly shake up the GC.

PREDICTION: Kevin Klein, Yahoo’ligan

GC PREDICTION: Billy Innes, Special Eds

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Master 45s … well, why not

CRIT – it’s hard to not say Bubba Melcher … so, I won’t.  He’ll be marked enough, but will still sneak away for the mid-race time bonus.  This guy steals primes like a gawdamn cat burglar.  It’s unbelievable how a guy the size of a linebacker can disappear out of a pack so often, so quickly.  He’s the definition of cunning.

But, there’s some horsepower on the team front … and I think that between SJBC, Specialized, MorganStanley, and DBC … it’ll come down to a pack gallop.  But take note 45′ers … if Bubba, Chris Black, and Larry Nolan get away, that train AIN’T comin back.  There’s a bunch of very strong field sprinters in this group, with Vince Gee and Mike Gadow always needing serious consideration – but, I’m going to go with a personal favorite … a guy who just radiates coolness and class.
PREDICTION: Chris Wire, SJBC
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TIME TRIAL – Give VOS’s John Novitsky a couple more months, and he’ll be stroking some pretty fast time trials.  But right now, I’m going to go with the pic of a guy coming off 4 days of racing with the pros at MERCO.  Nolan for the win.  But if you want an outside bet for someone with a chance at pulling off a nice upset, look for MorganStanley’s John Ford.  His position is so good on the TT bike, and he might just be fresh enough to smack down a serious effort.
PREDICTION: Larry Nolan, eSpecially Old
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ROAD RACE: I think the SJBC is going to pull out something special in this race.  They’ve got enough strong guys to follow the dangerous moves and I think they’ll profit from it.  Echelon’s Dirk Himley loves to be off the front of long-bomb road races and I see him thrashing himself to do so in this one.  And a guy who can sniff out a winning break no matter what his fitness level is MS’s Dan Smith.

Iron-clad forecast: this race will spin out more race reports next week than entrants.

PREDICTION: Chris Black, MorganStanley

GC PREDICTION: Larry Nolan, Specialized
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